Tuesday, December 21, 2021

Don't fear heart problems from the covid vaccine.

If you are afraid of vaccines, please read this post in its entirety before giving a knee-jerk reaction. Vaccines, to me, are a very simple thing, and there is little risk of actual harm stemming from their administration. If you would like to argue that point, please point me to actual academic, peer reviewed  literature, like the one I am referencing in this post. Articles coming from a website do not count, even if they reference actual literature--as you will understand after you read my post. I am not disparaging vaccine hesitancy. I understand the fear that misunderstood medicines can cause--you are injecting substances into your body, after all. Please also do not point me to the Wakefield paper (the one that claimed vaccines cause autism). The Lancet has retracted it. I am open to any kind of discussion as long as it is based in factual evidence and is held in good faith. With that out of the way, let's talk. 

Take a look at this article. It references this study, and claims that up to 1% of people who took the covid vaccine had some sort of heart problem and implies it was due to the vaccine. 

This is wrong. I will explain why in this article. 

Any medicine that causes a 1% rate of severe illness would be seriously unethical to prescribe without acknowledging its effect. The only explanation would be a massive misinformation campaign. And I don't think that's the case. We're not living in that bad of a dystopia. 

The study does claim that "Of the 38,615,491 vaccinated individuals included in our study, 385,508 (1.0%) were admitted to hospital with or died from cardiac arrhythmia at any time in the study period (either before or after vaccination); 86,754 (0.2%) of these occurred in the 1-28 days after any dose of vaccine. Of those who were admitted or died 39,897 (10.3%) had a SARS-CoV-2 positive test, with 29,694 (7.7%) having a positive test before vaccination. There were 7,795 deaths with cardiac arrhythmia recorded as the cause of death (1,108 had a SARS-CoV-2 positive test)."

However, the article leaves out one critical fact about the actual paper. This is every case, regardless of what caused it. Here's what the article actually discovered: that no vaccine caused more than 15 per million extra heart problems. Take it from them. 

"We estimated the number of exposures needed for one excess event and the excess number of events per 1 million exposed for each outcome (Fig. 2 and Supplementary Table 10). In the 1–28 days following the first dose of the ChAdOx1, BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccine, an extra two (95% CI 0, 3), one (95%CI 0, 2) and six (95% CI 2, 8) myocarditis events per 1 million exposed would be anticipated, respectively. In the 1–28 days following the second dose of mRNA-1273, an extra ten (95% CI 7, 11) myocarditis events per 1 million persons would be anticipated. This compares with an extra 40 (95% CI 38, 41) myocarditis events per 1 million in the 1–28 days following a SARS-CoV-2 positive test." (Patone, Et Al. Emphasis added.)

The translation? Exactly what I said above. The extra symptoms were measured in the PPM (Parts Per Million.) And they were single digit. 

Take a look at this graph. The big tall red one? That's the increased number of symptoms associated with actually catching covid. Those other ones are the two biggest vaccines for their first and second doses. The only one that isn't stacked in favor of covid is Myocarditis, which only breaks the trend by five per million. That's less than a percent of a percent of a percent. .0005%, to be exact. 

And according to the paper, some vaccines actually reduced the chance of serious heart problems. 



Let me explain a little something something about scientific studies; that is, many effects are small, and still can be labeled as "increase" or "decrease." Crucial academic literacy requires that you ask not only "is it significant" but also "is it significantly large or relevant." In this case, I would argue that it is not. There is a difference between statistically and relatively significant and this is one case where that is important.

In conclusion, you don't have to worry that the big bad government is hiding a huge scandal. They're not pushing a dangerous pseudo-drug that causes harm. They're utilizing centuries-old technology to stop a real public menace. Like polio and smallpox, vaccines are the best way to weather a storm like this.

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